U.S.-Iran war negotiations show "slight progress" with markets pricing peace hopes, driving oil down from $110 to $102 and softening yields to 4.56%. Key risk remains energy crisis escalation if Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with experts warning of critically low crude inventories within months. New Fed Chair Warsh sworn in today, with June 17 rate hike probability rising to 2.8% from zero last week.
Bitcoin rejected below $77k amid rate volatility and continued ETF outflows ($77M yesterday, 7 consecutive negative days). Long-term holders accumulating near record 16.3M BTC supply signals institutional conviction despite price weakness. Bitcoin Depot bankruptcy highlights broader crypto infrastructure stress. Overall structure remains bearish with peace hopes creating risk-off rotation.