US-Iran military exchange overnight has escalated geopolitical tensions with missile/drone strikes targeting Gulf allies and Strait of Hormuz operations. Dollar strength (DXY +0.66% to 100.07) and elevated VIX (21.5) reflect broad risk-off sentiment, while SPX dropped -2.64% with oil holding below $100 amid supply disruption concerns. Today's key risk is further escalation in the Iran conflict, which could drive additional dollar strength and risk asset outflows.
Bitcoin broke below $60k for the first time since October 2024, signaling institutional capitulation despite $1.74B BTC ETF inflows (+7 consecutive days). Ethereum down -10% leading broader altcoin weakness. Market structure remains bearish across major assets with strong DXY headwinds and geopolitical uncertainty overwhelming positive ETF flows. DEX volumes elevated at $13.3B (+49.8% vs 7d avg) suggesting increased volatility trading.