Iran war stalemate continues with Hezbollah rejecting ceasefire proposal and Israel maintaining military stance, keeping oil near $100 and supporting dollar strength. Equity markets showing fragility with SPX down 2.64% and VIX elevated at 21.5, creating risk-off conditions that typically weigh on crypto. Key risk today is any escalation in Middle East tensions which could trigger further dollar strength and risk asset selloffs.
All major crypto assets showing daily BEAR bias despite strong BTC ETF inflows ($1.74B, 7th consecutive day). Technical structure remains challenged with 2 bear order blocks across BTC/ETH and elevated ADX readings suggesting trend continuation. However, institutional accumulation via ETFs provides medium-term support floor. Stablecoin supply declining (-0.8% USDT, -0.56% USDC 7d) indicates reduced buying power.