The macro backdrop is decisively risk-off heading into Friday's session. New Fed Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish pivot at his inaugural FOMC, dropping forward guidance, signalling potential for two rate hikes before year-end, and causing an immediate repricing in rates markets (10Y yield now 4.465%) and a sharp USD rally (DXY +0.89% to 100.98). Gold has sold off sharply (-1.69%), and equity futures are mixed after Wednesday's S&P (-1.21%) / Nasdaq (-1.34%) drawdown. The US-Iran MoU remains highly fragile — the Israel-Lebanon clause is a likely deal-breaker — meaning Strait of Hormuz risk stays elevated and geopolitical uncertainty persists. Key risk for the session: Any further Warsh commentary or Fed speaker headlines could accelerate dollar strength; Strait re-opening news (expected today per MoU) could trigger a short-term risk-on pop but structural deal doubts limit durability.
> No major economic data releases are scheduled for today.