The geopolitical backdrop remains acutely elevated: Iran-US nuclear talks have collapsed after Iran withdrew from Swiss negotiations and Israel struck Lebanon overnight, directly threatening the fragile Strait of Hormuz deal. Oil is pressing back toward $80+ and ~1,500 ships remain queued pending mine-sweeping, meaning the Strait reopening is nominal, not functional. The dollar index is at a 52-week high (~100.575), USD/JPY is dangerously near 162 with BoJ intervention risk, and the newly hawkish Fed under Warsh adds a persistent yield-support bid to the dollar — all of which constitutes a structurally risk-off macro regime entering the week. No major economic data releases are scheduled today.
Key risks today: Geopolitical headline shock (Iran/Israel escalation), thin Sunday liquidity amplifying moves, and any weekend statement from Trump/Vance on the Iran deal collapse.