The backdrop remains risk-off: PCE inflation accelerated to 4.1% YoY in May (highest since April 2023), Q1 GDP was revised down to 2.1% with consumer spending near stall speed, and equity futures point lower with S&P/Nasdaq momentum deteriorating. The Iran-Hormuz situation is the dominant geopolitical overhang — a cargo ship was bombed, transit volumes remain ~50% below pre-war averages (~62 vs 138/day), and contradictory signals from Tehran suggest the "deal" is fragile at best. Dollar index has slipped to 100.005, but the macro bias (higher-for-longer Fed given sticky core PCE at 3.4%, Hormuz risk premium) argues against a sustained dollar reversal. No major data releases scheduled today.
Key risks: Hormuz escalation re-igniting oil spike; equity contagion (6/11 S&P sectors already in decline); Ripple/Saylor narrative creating intra-crypto noise.