The dominant macro catalyst is Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote, which has landed hawkish — Bitcoin is already shedding >3% on the initial read. The tension between Warsh's inflation-hawk posture and Treasury Secretary Bessent's yield management via buybacks creates institutional credibility risk for the Fed, keeping rate volatility elevated (10Y at 4.69%, German Bund at new 52W high of 3.29%). The Iran-Strait of Hormuz standoff remains unresolved; Tehran is drafting conditions for reopening but the US has flatly rejected parallel diplomatic tracks, keeping geopolitical risk premium alive in energy and safe-haven flows. No major data releases scheduled today.