The dominant macro risk today is Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote, which has already triggered a hawkish reaction: BTC shed >3% on the speech, reinforcing that inflation credibility and Fed/Treasury tension are the market's primary concern. Geopolitical stress remains elevated — the Strait of Hormuz remains closed (month seven), Iran is drafting conditional reopening terms with no near-term resolution, and NATO-Russia "gray zone" tensions are escalating, sustaining a risk-off undercurrent. The USD is modestly soft (DXY ~99.11), 10Y yields are elevated at 4.72%, and equity futures point lower — a collectively unfriendly backdrop for risk assets on a low-liquidity Sunday session.
Key risks today: Warsh follow-up commentary or FOMC member reactions; any Strait of Hormuz headlines; thin Sunday liquidity amplifying moves.