The macro backdrop opens September with a cautious tone: Iran escalation risks and lingering rate uncertainty are keeping risk appetite subdued, evidenced by SPX -0.33%, Gold bid +1.10%, and the US10Y holding elevated at 4.76%. DXY ticking +0.12% to 99.55 adds mild headwind for crypto. The key intraday catalyst is ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 ET (forecast 55.2, prev 55.6 — a beat sustains risk-on; a miss amplifies existing jitters). VIX at 14.9 remains calm, suggesting no systemic panic, but the geopolitical Iran overhang warrants position-size discipline.