The dominant theme is active US-Iran military conflict, with multiple rounds of strikes and confirmed retaliation overnight — a classic risk-off geopolitical shock. Crypto sold off hard into this, with BTC dropping to ~$77.6k despite having just posted its best monthly gain since November 2024. The macro mix is adversarial: rising oil prices (inflationary), rate jitter headwinds (US10Y at 4.80%), a slightly firming DXY (99.73), and equity weakness (SPX -0.71%). Gold catching a bid (+0.47%) confirms the safe-haven rotation is real. Key risks today: further Iran escalation headlines, any surprise Fed commentary, and oil-driven inflation fears re-pricing rate cut expectations.