The dominant macro risk today is a dual geopolitical/monetary shock: oil has surged to $108/bbl following Gulf states postponing Iran-Hormuz talks, while hotter-than-expected PPI data is reinforcing Fed rate hike expectations under the Warsh-led FOMC. This combination of stagflationary pressure (rising energy costs + tighter monetary policy) creates a classically risk-off macro backdrop that will pressure crypto's beta. China's AI/national security warning adds a secondary tail risk for tech-adjacent assets. No major data releases scheduled today per the economic calendar — price action will be macro-narrative and flow driven.