Monday 05 October 2026 07:00 UTC
Risk-on conditions dominate the open: SPX closed +0.73%, VIX sits at 15.3 (calm), and pared Fed rate hike expectations continue to provide crypto a tailwind despite the US 10Y holding elevated at 5.28%. Geopolitical risk remains elevated with Iran war coverage active on major newswires — a flash escalation could rapidly reverse risk appetite and is the primary tail risk for the session. Two scheduled catalysts will define afternoon volatility: US ISM Services PMI (Sep, forecast 55.7, 14:00 UTC) and FOMC Minutes on Wednesday 7 Oct — traders should reduce size into the 14:00 print and have defined plans in place before it hits.